The global economy will continue to grow steadily in 2018.
Bank Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
At the same time, the global financial market may show a negative trend.
The main topics of the next year (according to BOF) will be: tax reform in the US, the strengthening of the dollar on the world stage, increased volatility and narrowing credit spreads.
Analysts expect acceleration in 2018g. the growth rate of the us economy - up to 2.4% - against the backdrop of a decline in the stock market and the growth of yield on securities of the us Treasury (treasuries).
The Bank of America took into account such economic indicators as the reduction of key interest rates by the leading Central Banks of the planet, the purchase of financial assets totaling 2 trillion by the ECB and the Bank of Japan in the current year. dollars, a sharp rise in the bitcoin exchange rate.
50 50 years s&p 500 index volatility.
Together, according to BofA, these factors allow us to talk about the imminent completion of the long-term "bullish" trend in the world markets.
At the same time, investors will be able to make a profit before the end of the current cycle.
Bank of America expects the rally to collapse and a significant decrease in the estimates of risky assets against the background of reaching the peak of profitability.
Investors ' positions will be characterized by excessive optimism.
At the same time, Central Banks will begin to withdraw liquidity, reducing incentives.
Overall, experts forecast BofA in 2018 at the same time optimistic for macroeconomic and pessimistic – for the global markets.